Monday, February 25, 2008

Fourteen Months - LID for China Anniversary

While we are working feverishly to complete an adoption from Kyrgyzstan, it remains in the back of my mind that our dossier is sitting in China -- waiting. Today is our 14 month "anniversary" of our log-in-date for our China adoption. When we began, the wait time was at fourteen months. Now, when I go to the China Adoption Forecast website and check their forecast for our referral date from China, I get:

Our prediction for LID 2006-12-25

If China did all future referrals at the exact same speed as they did this month: 2011-12-10

Our best guess - a weighted average of recent CCAA velocities, guessing that CCAA will perform about as well in the future as they are performing now, but might return to previous trends: 2011-07-08

That's our best guess for when you might receive your referral. Just at a guess, we can suppose that the CCAA either speeds up or slows down significantly, and show you those dates. If they speed up: 2009-09-30. And if they slow down: 2014-09-19.
Since China generally sends out referrals in a batch about once per month, your referral date could easily vary +/- one month depending on whether you just get included or just get missed in a particular batch.

So, based on this information, our wait will be 5.5 years if we continue down this path. It will be a minimum of 41 more months to referral.
Our social worker asked, while updating our homestudy, if we will still continue with our China adoption when we finalize our adoption from Krygyzstan. I told her that I didn't know. And, I don't think we know. God is good enough to only reveal as much as we can deal with at a time. I'm sure, once we are past this adoption, we will know what we need to do. I suspect, after the Olympics in Beijing are finished this summer, there might be movement in China's adoption process. They have been positioning themselves for a long time to be a country promoted in a positive spotlight. Being high on the list of international adoption sources would not be considered positive in their country. It remains to be seen what will happen with that country as well with our continued attempts to adopt from there. My heart still feels the call from there. The significance of our log-in-date is not lost on me. Time will tell.

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